Assessing the Impact of Mobility on COVID-19: Spatial Evidence from Ireland

This paper attempts to draw lessons from the Irish experience of COVID-19 by concentrating on the importance of mobility, especially the role of commuting. As lockdown periods progressed, we found increasing levels of workplace attendance, over and above what would be expected if only essential workers were physically going to work. Mobility-related variables were significantly associated with increased incidence of the virus at a national level. The level of inter-county essential worker commuting was found to be inversely related to infection rates in the workers' home county. © 2023, Economic and Social Studies. All rights reserved.

Strategies for developing preparedness and building legacy – learning from the experience of building Health System Resilience in Ireland : Stephen Thomas

Health system resilience to shocks is perhaps the biggest global challenge facing health systems in the 21st Century. Health systems face an increasing prevalence and likelihood of a broad range of shocks (including economic crises, pandemics, climate-related events, political upheavals, mass migration, conflicts and cyberterrorism) that can each undermine the ability of a health system to function well. In particular, the twin processes of dealing with the legacy of a health system shock and preparing for the next shock are distinct but related challenges that face policy makers today. In this presentation the authors will present key findings on improving preparedness and building a constructive legacy drawing from: • the results of a recent systematic review on how health system resilience has been measured in high income countries over the last twenty years;• the results of a recent realist review exploring the legacy of the economic crisis for the resilience of the response of the health system to COVID-19, and • analysis of interviews with Irish policy makers, managers and analysts as they reflect on the different shocks encountered by the Irish system over the last fourteen years. Triangulating these findings, the authors will reflect on the merits and challenges of measuring resilience and what the focus should be moving forward. Key strategies and approaches will be outlined to best prepare a system for a shock and to leave a positive legacy for the future.

Novel welfare state responses in times of crises: the COVID-19 crisis versus the Great Recession

Using microsimulation tools, we explore the social policy responses to the Great Recession and the COVID-19 crisis, and their impact on preserving living standards in Ireland. During the Great Recession, the focus was on cost reduction. By contrast, during the COVID-19 crisis, the focus was on mitigating the impact on household incomes. In addition, an innovation in joint public and private responses emerged through social partnership. We find a stronger policy response during the COVID-19 crisis than the Great Recession. The COVID-19 crisis was more rapid, leaving more individuals out of work, thus family support was weaker. This was compensated by stronger private support through social partnership. Consequently, those with lower incomes had larger disposable incomes at the onset of the crisis;an effect that reduced with policy learning. We find increasing trust in public institutions during the COVID-19 crisis as opposed to a decline during the Great Recession.

A Microsimulation Analysis of the Distributional Impact over the Three Waves of the COVID-19 Crisis in Ireland

This paper relies on a microsimulation framework to undertake an analysis of the distributional implications of the COVID-19 crisis over three waves. Given the lack of real-time survey data during the fast moving crisis, it applies a nowcasting methodology and real-time aggregate administrative data to calibrate an income survey and to simulate changes in the tax benefit system that attempted to mitigate the impacts of the crisis. Our analysis shows how crisis-induced income-support policy innovations combined with existing progressive elements of the tax-benefit system were effective in avoiding an increase in income inequality at all stages of waves 1-3 of the COVID-19 emergency in Ireland. There was, however, a decline in generosity over time as benefits became more targeted. On a methodological level, our paper makes a specific contribution in relation to the choice of welfare measure in assessing the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on inequality. © 2021, O’Donoghue et al.